If Jeff Passan is to be believed, the odds of Juan Soto being dealt by Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline is about 80/20.
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Padres, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Rangers are the best-positioned teams to pry Soto away.
But let’s be crystal clear – only one of those spots makes perfect sense and that’s San Diego.
Sure, the Dodgers are the class of the National League, but their roster is due to undergo some pretty seismic changes over the next couple seasons with several key, aging players approaching free agency and likely needing to be replaced from within by their top of the class farm system, which would be gutted by a potential Soto trade.
The Cardinals make a lot of sense as well, especially given the optics of a couple Cardinals legends like Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina handing the keys to Busch Stadium to Soto.
But the Cardinals have one of baseball’s more underwhelming pitching staffs and there’s no indication that’s changing in the time between a potential Soto acquisition and his impending free agency in 2025. Their needs for pitching dwarf the desire for Soto.
The Rangers have already added massive contracts in Marcus Semien and Corey Seager this past Winter, and at 45-55 this season, 20 GB in the AL West and 8.5 GB for the final Wild Card spot, this season would be a complete wash and would put enormous emphasis on pushing young pitchers to expedite their growth, which isn’t exactly something a bunch of young players can just… do.
But, at 56-46, with long-term stars locked in and a payroll situation that isn’t as crunched as it may seem at first glance, the San Diego Padres are precisely the right team for Soto and his singular greatness to set down his roots.
The Padres are currently 1.5 games up on the Phillies for for the second Wild Card spot, and two games up on fourth-place St. Louis.
Furthermore, the Padres have done all this without the services of star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who has missed all of this season with a broken left wrist, and outfielder Wil Myers, who has been out since early June with a knee injury.
Tatis is not far from a rehab assignment and Myers is currently on one.
Acquiring Soto by Tuesday and adding Tatis later in the month would be the equivalent of a strong second-place team adding two premier sluggers for the exorbitant price of one.
It would also turn the Padres into baseball’s most exciting and fun watch; a favorite of any fan with an MLB.tv account and a rooting interest in a team who spends a bit too much time acting like they’ve been there before.
Between Soto’s shimmies at the plate and clear ability to get into a pitcher’s head, Tatis Jr’s willingness to swing away, no matter the situation, Machado’s steady bat and defensive swagger, and Musgrove’s rapidly-rising greatness on the bump, this is a recipe for a new era of baseball; a blueprint for what will drive eyes to the game.
All that stands in the way of this burgeoning potential, is the Padres’ willingness to pay the price of admission.
The Cost of Soto
Ah yes, the price.
The recent elbow injury to MacKenzie Gore could toss a wrench into the talks, or compel the Nationals to ask for an additional prospect as a sort of insurance for Gore.
However it goes down, San Diego needs to pull the trigger and accept the cost.
No top prospect is ever “expendable”, but the Padres’ system is built to withstand the loss of these particular players; almost as if it was designed with a Soto trade in mind years ago.
Abrams is blocked by Tatis and has Jackson Merrill on his heels, and Hassell is only just above James Wood in their respective organizational rankings.
Every one of the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Rangers would have to carve out a significant and painful chunk of their farm system to acquire Soto and could easily be sunk by the cost.
The Padres are uniquely constructed to absorb Soto, extend him if they so choose, and produce one of the most productive, fearsome, and exciting offensive trios in baseball history.
Money, money, money
The Padres opened 2022 with the fifth-highest payroll in baseball at $211.2 million.
Their roster features four major, long-term contracts as follows:
- SS Fernando Tatis Jr. – 14 yrs/$340 million (21-34)
- 3B Manny Machado – 10 yrs/$300 million (19-28)
- 1B/DH Eric Hosmer – 8 yrs/$144 million (18-25)
- SP Yu Darvish – 6 yrs/$126 million (18-23)
Consider also that the Friars are reported to be close to an agreement with starter Joe Musgrove on a five-year/$100 million deal and that gives the Padres five major contracts, four of which will extend beyond 2025, when Soto hits free agency.
You’d be forgiven if you wondered, well where the hell does Soto fit in?
Consider also that along with Darvish’s contract ending after 2023, the Padres are also due to shed the contracts some other notable deals:
- OF/1B Wil Myers – 6 yrs/$83 million (17-22, club option for ’23 likely to be declined.)
- SP Blake Snell – 5 yrs/$50 million (19-23)
- RP Drew Pomeranz – 4 yrs/$34 million (20-23)
In terms of AAV, the Padres will shed around $53.3 million per year in just those four players, opening just enough room to absorb the reported new deal for Musgrove ($20 million in AAV if terms remain as reported) and Soto ($33.3 million + anywhere between $3-7 million additional as Soto uses his age and production to surpass Mike Trout’s record AAV of $35.5 million).
If the Padres can find a taker for Hosmer and a sizeable chunk of his salary, every bit of whatever Soto wants and Musgrove gets will be under the payroll figure the Padres currently possess.
From there, San Diego will need to decide how much tax they’re willing to pay to improve the roster in free agency and trades, but the hope would be that the remaining elite prospects in the minors would help alleviate that need and give GM A.J. Preller some financial cushion with the rest of his roster building.
It’s difficult to imagine the Nationals being able to do much better than the package of young talent the Padres would send their way.
CJ Abrams would finally get consistent at-bats and field time, Hassell could very well become the next great hitter in the game, and receiving the talents of not one, but two highly-regarded southpaw prospects is a bundle of talent most every team only dreams of.
There’s no good way to communicate to your fan base that you’re trading Juan Soto. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is in a shit position and he knows it, but the best way to attempt to weather that storm and come out on the other side with something aside from a decade(s)-long rebuild that spans multiple owners and GMs is very likely this trade package San Diego is uniquely positioned to offer.
Five Tool Talk 
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