The economics of baseball are such that you can get away with knowing little to nothing about them while maintaining a valid fan card for your team of origin.

But when the clock strikes midnight on a historically successful juggernaut, which is what a two-game sweep at the hands of the upstart Detroit Tigers in the AL Wild Card round represents, it becomes frustratingly necessary to undertake a quick lesson in how to maintain a contender without drowning in oversized contracts.

Former Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow, the man who constructed the core of this era of Astros baseball, instituted many core beliefs at the outset of his tenure in 2012, but most notably for this piece, he believed in drafting and developing top-tier talent, raising them through the minors, promoting them to Houston and enjoying the bounties of their careers for the first six years (seven, if he could successfully manipulate your service time).

Once a star reached free agency, if they hadn’t already been extended before on a team-friendly deal way earlier, they would be allowed to depart with the knowledge that their replacement was already in the pipeline, growing and rising hot on the star incumbent’s heels.

Entering the 2021 season, star shortstop Carlos Correa knew he was entering his final season in Houston. Thus, he began to tutor his likely replacement, Jeremy Pena.

Like George Springer the season before, Correa knew the Astros’ policy on contracts extending beyond five and six years. In short, they were dead against them. Nothing personal.

Year after year, the Astros have let stars and cornerstone players depart via free agency, relying overwhelmingly on internal candidates to replace them.

Each year, the Astros are rewarded for their shrewdness.

Pena won a Gold Glove and matching MVP honors in both the ALCS and World Series in his rookie season. Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers have managed to replace George Springer in the aggregate.

Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander have been allowed to walk away, with only one bringing back draft compensation via a rejected qualifying offer.

The Astros still won by plugging in former non-prospects like Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy.

This past season, the Astros never received any contribution from Lance McCullers Jr., who hasn’t pitched one big league inning since he got boat raced by the Phillies in Game 3 of the 2022 World Series; ditto Garcia, as well as Urquidy.

Javier made seven starts before being lost to Tommy John surgery, which was announced around the same time that a rehabbing Urquidy also announced his TJ surgery.

Verlander, re-acquired during the ’23 season from the fading Mets after making just eight starts in Queens, made only 17 starts in ’24 and suffered through a mess of a season that saw him left off of the postseason roster.

Even a depth option like J.P. France would be lost for the season after only five starts.

At multiple points throughout the season, the Astros had an entire starting rotation on the injured list, sometimes more.

Still, the Astros persevered relying on youngsters like Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti, and even non-youngsters like Ronel Blanco, a man who started the season with 24 mostly forgettable appearances in The Show, only to throw a no-hitter against Toronto in his first start of the season.

Blanco would finish the season with a sterling 2.89 ERA in what amounted to yet another out-of-nowhere gem from the depths of Houston’s farm system, which is widely recognized by the industry as being, much like the North Pole, devoid of life.

That lands us here – at the excavation site of my main point.

The Astros have never opted to trade a star prior to their departure because the team had a minor league system still pumping out premium replacement talent, and major trades were always on the menu.

But now, the Astros’ roster is expensive and beginning to fray around the ends, and the team’s once-shameful bounty of depth has been lost to promotions, trades, and injury.

Kyle Tucker is one year from free agency. Ditto Valdez. Alex Bregman has been allowed to hit the free agent market, with eyes squarely on a long commitment; the kind Houston’s front office still despises.

Houston’s offer of $156 million over six years to Bregman is both a valiant offer, and a futile one.

Teams like Boston, Detroit, and the Yankees are going to be willing to give Bregman the 7-8 years he desires, and while money is nice, it’s the security of a near-decade commitment that will ultimately lead Bregman elsewhere.

So why not extend Tucker?

Two words: Juan Soto.

To be clear, Kyle Tucker is not Juan Soto, but he’ll be only three years older than Soto was when he inked his economy-shifting deal with the Mets last week, and he’s a superior fielder and baserunner to Soto, with a bat and clutch factor that isn’t necessarily moons away from the newest resident in Queens.

It’s quite easy to project any contract for Tucker, results of the 2024 season be damned, starting in the 8-10 year range, with the salary ballooning out to numbers far beyond what the Astros would be willing to commit.

If you’re Astros GM Dana Brown, and you know the state of your franchise and the size of the fork in the road, then the answer to your quandry is both simple and profoundly painful – trade Tucker.

It appears that’s the road they’re on.

“According to AL folks I trust, it will be a surprise if the Astros don’t trade Kyle Tucker within 48 hours. The Cubs appear like clear favorites. Until a deal is done, keep an eye on the Yankees, but Cubs were better positioned. Still waiting on other sources to call back.”

Jose de Jesus Ortiz, via X

Would it be awesome to wake up tomorrow and hear that the Astros stunned the baseball world by re-signing Bregman AND Tucker to long-term deals, cementing a core that would undoubtedly create more magic as the years mount and the results become more symbolic? Absolutely!

But the same issues would remain – who else plays for this team? Who replaces departing stars surrounding them? You can’t sign everyone.

The Astros don’t need to go scorched earth with their process, selling everything of value. But they do need to take stock of what’s here, what’s needed, and what comes next.

The stated plan would be to remain a competitive, forward-running franchise in a post-Tucker world.

Regardless of what happens in the hours and days ahead with regards to Bregman, Astros fans need to prepare for the worst – both guys are gone.

Ditto that for Framber Valdez, though there’s a sound argument for keeping him in town despite his doppleganger situation.

Let’s assume Bregman departs. Now there’s a Gold Glove hole at the hot corner, and none of the internal candidates (Shay Whitcomb, Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubon) inspire that much confidence.

A theoretical Kyle Tucker trade must address multiple issues on the roster, which is tricky when you can only guarantee King Tuck’s new team of one year of service.

One thing helping the Astros is just how well Juan Soto’s sole season in the Bronx turned out, with the Yankees returning to the World Series for the first time in 15 years.

The Yankees surrendered an enormous package of young talent to San Diego for the generationally talented Soto, knowing full-well that it could all be a one-shot deal.

They probably didn’t expect it to be that, but they at least knew the advertised risks.

Soto, paired with regular season juggernaut Aaron Judge, turned in arguably the best season of his career, positioning him for his record 15-year $765 million defection to the crosstown Mets.

Any team acquiring Tucker will know the risks and see that this very scenario has already played out for a franchise unaccustomed to the rejections of their money-drenched advances.

Will the Cubs, a team far pruder than they have a right to be, actually pull the trigger on a deal likely to cost them not just loads of player capital, but also runs the risk of them being on the giving-end of a franchise-record extension or sitting here in one year without anything to show for their trouble?

Likewise, are the Yankees really hopping back in line for a roller coaster that just ejected them into a brick wall?

In both cases, the Astros are hoping that it’s a resounding, and competing, hell yes.

I ran a few theoretical trades over at BaseballTradeValues.com and got a few deals through using their thorough ranking systems for both Major League players as well as minor leaguers.

• Astros trade: OF Kyle Tucker, CF Chas McCormick, SP J.P. France, INF Zach Dezenzo
• Cubs trade: 3B Isaac Parades, SP Ben Brown, INF Cam Smith

The model described the prosposal as a ‘Major Overpay’, adding that it would likely still be accepted if all needs are met.

The Astros are dealing one year of Tucker, but need as much back as they can get. The inclusion of Paredes doesn’t guarantee a Bregman departure, as the 2024 trade deadline pick-up from Tampa Bay can also man first base in the event the hot corner is still occupied by Houston’s star incumbent.

The inclusion of McCormick, who’s coming off an injury-riddled season that saw his offensive numbers crater, along with the still-injured France gives the Cubs some cost-controlled big league talent with recent track records of varying levels of success.

Dezenzo’s inclusion occurs to clear the way for the incoming Smith, the 14th overall pick in last season’s draft, and a high-upside infielder who already touched three levels of the minors, topping out at Double-A Tennessee.

Meanwhile, the 6’6″ Brown is already 55.1 IP into his big league career and comes armed with six seasons of control and tremendous upside.

Why would the Cubs do this?

Well, they get Kyle Tucker.

The other players though add a multi-dimensional flare with the potential for added depth to their pitching staff around mid-season. McCormick’s rough ’24 can be easily explained away given his track record and plus glove, though his speed and arm leave him best-suited for a corner outfield spot.

Dezenzo is still figuring things out, but he’s currently raking in Winter League ball, which is a positive sign for the 24-year-old after a year that started with a significant wrist injury, followed by two rapid promotions, first to Triple-A Sugar Land after only 25 games in Double-A, and then to Houston after only 11 games in AAA.

• Astros trade: OF Kyle Tucker
• Yankees trade: SP Luis Gil, 1B Ben Rice

BTV listed this trade as a’Minor Overpay’ for the Yankees, adding that “there is still a high probability” that the trade would be accepted if all needs were met.

Listen, for the Yankees to get Tucker, I’m staring at that Padres deal from a year ago and thinking, yeah, I want Jasson Dominguez, too. But I would probably have to add Framber to the deal, and I’m not about to give the Yankees all that action.

Plus, I feel like we watched a bit of an emotional regression for Framber last season. 2022 was such a breakout year for Valdez, thanks in large part to his seeing a sports psychiatrist during the offseason to help him control his emotions on the mound.

Valdez has always been a groundball-heavy pitcher with a mind-bending curveball, but when bad things happened to Framber, an otherwise excellent start could suddenly snowball into disaster faster than a reliever could warm his shoulder in the ‘pen.

The ’22 season seemed to be the end of all that given his outright dominance through the season and postseason, but the remergence of ‘Bad Framber’ this past season made his wild journey to yet another statistically superior season a real game of emotional russian roullette for those of us holding our breaths everytime he walked two guys in an inning, or gave up a two-out hit to the nine-hole hitter.

The saving grace for Framber is that he plays in a major market already, but Houston’s local media are pretty forgiving when compared to the groups in New York, LA, and Chicago.

A sudden meltdown on the mound in those cities could be catastrophic for Valdez and his psyche.

Maybe I will add him to the Yankees package.

The Yankees would clearly approve this trade as constructed without blinking, but the Astros would be solving a couple issues out of the gate, deploying the reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner in Gil near the top of the rotation, and sliding Rice into first base for a high-profile audition.

Additonal trades of players such as Valdez and former closer Ryan Pressly would go a long way towards reshaping the roster’s financial resources.

The team has already allowed guys like Urquidy, relievers Seth Martinez and Penn Murfee, and utility player Trey Cabbage to hit the waiver wire and find new homes, though Urquidy remains a free agent given his injury status.

Trade deadline acquisition Yusei Kikuchi, the lefty from Toronto that cost the Astros three promising young talents, has already departed for the division-rival Angels, and Triple-A closer Wander Suero penned a new deal with Atlanta just this week.

The Astros will also be paying free agent 1B Jose Abreu his final installment of $19.5 million this season, along with reliever Rafael Montero and his $11.5 million, which is currently off the 40-man roster. Add in another $17 million for McCullers and the $10 million owed to Javier, and the Astros have the potential of carrying $56 million in dead payroll this season.

It’s an uneviable position for the Astros to be in, but the most prudent way forward is to cash in your chips now and hope for a seamless re-tool.

The Astros need young, affordable talent to augment what already exists. This will be a wildly different Astros team next season, but they don’t have to close their window on the dynasty fully.

I often wonder how Luhnow would have handled this stage of the franchise, as more and more of the players he drafted and developed departed, and to a degree, I wonder how his replacement, James Click, would have faired here.

But the man in the seat is Dana Brown, and he’s tasked with carrying out and interpreting an owner’s vision, which was adopted by the man preceding both Brown and Click.

How Tucker and Bregman are managed in the days to come will likely be the series of decisions that later define Brown’s legacy in Houston.

Yikes.